Modelling studies used to evaluate the effect of population-level non-pharmaceutical interventions on the reproduction number of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
This rapid evidence review looked at modelling studies used to evaluate the effect of population-level non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the reproduction number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes COVID-19.
The use of NPIs, such as ‘lockdowns’, social restrictions, and shop closures, have been applied during the pandemic to slow the spread of COVID-19 disease. This review found nine relevant modelling studies published since 2021, mostly using data obtained from the first and second wave of SARS-CoV-2. The timing of the data collected must be taken into consideration as different waves of SARS-CoV-2 have had different effects. The relevant modelling studies looked at closures specifically of schools, workplaces, public transport, and gatherings.
The identified studies are used in a NPI optimisation tool, developed by the Welsh Government Technical Advisory Cell (TAC) to show the evidence in an interactive way. The reproduction number, or the speed at which the SARS-CoV-2 is spreading in the community, is entered and a modelling study is chosen followed by the relevant non-pharmaceutical interventions - this produces a projection of a new Reproduction number. The tool could be used to show the potential impact of NPIs implemented in the past or possibly could be applied to future scenarios or pandemic planning.
RR00036